As Thomas Harris wrote in Imperium, A Novel of Ancient Rome, you can always spot a fool, for he is the one who will tell you he knows who is going to win an election.

And, there are plenty of people looking foolish for considering Donald Trump a certainty to win the upcoming U.S. presidential election, in the days following his attempted assassination on July 14.

Not least of which, the candidate himself, who, brimming with confidence, chose JD Vance as his running mate—a choice that seems to have been poorly vetted and offers little to the ticket other than support for Trump’s worldview. Then there are those who rushed to purchase financial instruments likely to benefit from a second Trump presidency, such as cryptocurrency, as well as shares in conservative media, gun manufacturing and private prison companies.

Of course, the sharp gains these assets experienced in the days following the shooting and the euphoric Republican National Convention vanished as quickly as Trump’s lead in the polls, following the replacement of Joe Biden with Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate.

But none of this is to say a Harris victory over Trump is assured. As we’ve seen over the last month, and in numerous previous election cycles, anything can happen. The only certainty is uncertainty. Whether you are in politics or business, it is foolish to assume any election is in the bag or fail to consider the full range of election outcome scenarios in your planning.

This article also appeared in The West Australian newspaper.

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