The recent WA election was striking in its banality, which is not a bad thing considering the impacts of more volatile political systems around the globe.

Broadly, the polling conducted prior to the election was reflected in the results on election day. Policy announcements were constructed and broadcast well in advance of early voting. Even the leaders of the major political parties were consigned to the fact that WA Labor would be re-elected comfortably, albeit facing historically large swings and a reduced majority.

Aside from a number of rogue candidates and the questionable management of the election by the WA Electoral Commission, there were few headline-grabbing ‘gotcha’ moments.

The injection of Basil Zempilas into the Legislative Assembly and appointment as Leader of the Opposition is probably more likely to keep subeditors employed.

Let’s wait and see if the upcoming Federal election offers a little more colour.

The prospect of a minority government, some major long-term economic and policy choices, as well as an Australian political class grappling with the impacts of an increasingly impulsive White House are sure to create a pressure-cooker environment.

One major benefit of ReGen Strategic regularly publishing perspectives on government relations, communications and the progress of ESG is that we can occasionally look back and see whether our predictions and recommendations continue to hold weight.

At the conclusion of the recent US election that returned President Trump to the White House, ReGen Strategic suggested a handful of salient considerations that still appear to retain their value.

 

1. Voters aren’t stupid. It really is the economy. 

By any conventional measure, Western Australia’s economic and financial position is enviable. Combined with a strong jobs market and a pivot towards onshoring industries that are critical to the State’s growth, Premier Cook and WA Labor played their trump card and were rewarded with a third term. 

The national context is markedly different, with the Federal Budget forecasting deficits and an economy being rattled by a changing world order. The Albanese Government will lean heavily on the proposed pre-election ‘sweeteners’ for households’ energy use and health, while Peter Dutton is taking a big risk with the proposal to establish a nuclear power sector to address energy costs over the long-term.

 

2. Leadership change is never popular.

Australia will conclude two terms of national government with the same leaders it started with. This is nothing short of remarkable considering the carnage of Prime Ministerial casualties between 2010 and 2018. Clearly the major parties at a Federal level have realised how off-putting this political bloodlust was to the public.

At a state level, Libby Mettam faced a clumsy backroom challenge which hamstrung any attempt to project unity. The inevitable election review will be certain to cite this as a factor for not eating into Premier Cook and WA Labor’s healthy third-term majority.

 

3. Don’t go chasing culture wars.

 Social media zeitgeist is almost always dominated by issues that are a long way away from suburban kitchen tables. But time and time again, candidates are lured into thinking fringe issues are far bigger than reality.

There are signs that the Federal election could veer away from the mainstream, notably the proposal by Peter Dutton to hold a referendum on powers to deport citizens with dual nationality. Time will tell over the coming month whether this opens the floodgates to a range of pet issues that are simmering in the Coalition partyroom.

 

4. Incumbency ain’t what it used to be.

As opposition parties continue to turn over governments globally, “better the devil you know” has been replaced with “do you feel better off?” But this question loses its potency quickly if economic conditions are benign. The settling of political polling following the recent decision by the RBA to cut interest rates is evidence of this dynamic.

Governments are elected to govern. And with that responsibility comes an expectation to lead communities through periods of change. It should be anticipated that the upcoming Federal election campaign will see a grander sales pitch for what Australia could look like by 2050, which will require a leap of faith by the electorate.

 

ReGen Strategic will be continually monitoring policy announcements and their implications through the upcoming Federal election campaign. Alongside our written communications, we will be releasing regular episodes of our new podcast, “The Pulse”, which can be subscribed to via iTunes, Spotify and YouTube.

 

All